Obama-McCain Race Could Be Akin to 2004

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Across several subgroups, Barack Obama's support compared with John McCain's is similar to John Kerry's support compared with George W. Bush's in 2004.

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Wrong. Wrong. Kerry ... ( 5 months ago by allencrider)

Wrong. Wrong. Kerry got repeatedly hit about his so-called flip-flopping over the Iraq War. This election will be about age.

You're right ... ( 5 months ago by osiris33)

You're right allencrider, but also, I think this year it's more about TURNOUT and the ENTHUSIASM of such. A more RELATIVE poll would be to see how the primary numbers compare.

Those numbers don't ... ( 5 months ago by bernlin2000)

Those numbers don't mean much of anything...the political atmosphere couldn't be more different from 2004, today. Then, the Iraq War still had a fair amount of support and Bush was at 50% approval rating. Republicans controlled all 3 branches as well. Now, Democrats have control of the Congress, Bush's approval is nearing 30%, and the Iraq War has very little support. The Republican Party seems to have no blueprint for the future, other than more of the same...which few Americans will tolerate.

Percentages don't ... ( 5 months ago by tubebunny7)

Percentages don't mean a thing if you don't have numbers and it's easy to just look at the current weak points of Obama. What about the strong points? Young voters, black voters who vote Democratic are likely to vote in bigger numbers than in 2004, not to mention the fact that a lot of new voters have been registered that will go Democratic in November.

Kerry didn't win ... ( 5 months ago by tubebunny7)

Kerry didn't win the popular vote while Obama will according to the polls. Kerry lost by a 35 votes spread to Bush. Obama only needs to get 18 votes more than Kerry did in 2004. If he wins Ohio and gains 20 votes the math is there already. If he wins Virginia and nets 13 votes then winning New Mexico or Colorado (9 votes) is enough.

(cont.) Other ... ( 5 months ago by tubebunny7)

(cont.) Other states Obama could very likely win that went Republican in 2004: Nevada 5 votes Iowa with 7 votes North Dakota 3 votes up to 57 votes are likely to go to Obama that didn't go to Kerry in 2004. The Republicans need to win 40 elsewhere to avoid a Democratic win if Obama wins 57. That means Obama could even afford to lose Pennsylvania AND Michigan! Although I think he will win both, especially Michigan. So losing PA doesn't mean it's over and currently he is leading McCain a bit.

You do realize John ... ( 4 months ago by alil2sarcastic)

You do realize John Kerry lost right.....

mind you, this is ... ( 4 months ago by drewdanger721)

mind you, this is only analyzing people without a college degree and white voters. The reason is that these people tend to buy into fear tactics and appease racism. Bush has a 14% approval rating, second lowest in history tying his dad. This election will be a blowout, don't let anyone fool you.

Google: ... ( 4 months ago by Srhandel)

Google: dontvoteobamadotnet
Google: exposeobamadotcom

The gallup poll is ... ( 2 months ago by greg2009)

The gallup poll is more accurate. It shows Obama 37% to McCain's 53% amongst white voters. If young voters vote in droves I believe Obama's white support goes up to 40-43 percent. The black vote will make Obama competitive in the Southern states: VA, NC, GA, FL-Obama has to have only 25% of the white vote plus 90% black vote in GA and NC. In VA and FL he needs to get around 40% of the white vote. All of this depends on if blacks vote according to their % in the population.

Yeah, but John ... ( 2 months ago by GenXer68)

Yeah, but John Kerry was not a Marxist muslim nigger who brags about how much he hates white people on a daily bassis. Fuck that Nigger!

Turn out has be ... ( 2 months ago by greg2009)

Turn out has be huge in the battleground states for a strong Democratic victory. If not, this will be the 3rd straight presidential election defeat for Democrats. Young and new voters will help Obama if they come out in the swing states. Large black turnout in the South will make it competitve, but the only Southern states I see Obama winning is Virginia and maybe Florida (a stretch)(large Hispanic vote (Obama leads McCain among them 75%-25%).

Give Georgia a ... ( 2 months ago by osiris33)

Give Georgia a chance... it's neck and neck.

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